Monday, June 28, 2010

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

Tropical Storm Alex

 Alex is getting better organized while moving slowly away from the Yucatan Peninsula.
As of 5:00 am EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located about 440 mi east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico and 710 south of New Orleans, LA. Alex is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Alex could become a hurricane later today or Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. However, a tropical storm watch may be required later today for the coastal regions of northeastern Mexico and south Texas.
(NOAA)
Federal Actions:
Region VI
 
The Region VI Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) will increase to Level III at 8:00 am CDT, today. The region is maintaining contact with the National Weather Service and Texas Division of Emergency Management. An IMAT advanced element is scheduled to arrive at the Texas Division of Emergency Management today and other liaisons are on standby. Emergency Support Function liaisons will deploy to the Region VI RRCC if the activation level increases to Level II.
(FEMA HQ, Regions IV) 

Significant National Weather

West: 
A frontal system will produce precipitation from Washington and Oregon to the Northern Rockies. Afternoon thunderstorms are in the forecast for the Four Corners area.
High temperatures will exceed 100 in the Central Valley of California and could break 110 in the Desert Southwest.
Midwest:
High pressure ridging into the region will bring a break in the precipitation for most areas.  The only significant weather will be showers and thunderstorms along the cold front stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas. Areas of heavy precipitation, as much as an inch, will result in localized flash flooding.
South:
The southern end of the cold front will produce showers and thunderstorms from Arkansas to the Southern Plains. Areas of heavy precipitation, as much as an inch and a half, will result in localized flooding.  The portion of the region southeast of the front will continue to be hot (90s) and humid, so expect widespread showers. Scattered thunderstorms during afternoon and evening hours are likely.
Northeast:
A strong cold front will move across the region today producing extensive showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the front temperatures will be in the 90s with very high humidity.  Severe thunderstorms are forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Primary threats are gusty winds and hail. Tomorrow, the front will be offshore except for southeastern Virginia where it will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms. 
(NOAA and media sources) 

Mississippi Canyon 252 Update

Federal Response:
FEMA is providing personnel and equipment support
Situational Update:
Mississippi Canyon 252

The FL EOC is at Level I (Full Activation); AL EOC remains at Level III (Partially Activated); MS EOC is at Level IV (Normal Operations).  Approximately 38,927 personnel, 6,458 vessels, and 109 aircraft assigned. Booming, skimming and in situ burn operations continue as weather permits.  Relief well drilling continues
Landfall & Impacts
The estimated oil spill rate is between 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day.  An estimated 2.4 – 4.1 million barrels of oil have been released from the well as of 26 June.  Approximately 78,500 sq miles or 33 percent of the Gulf of Mexico exclusive economic zone closed to commercial and recreational fishing (NIC Daily Situation Update, DHS NOC SLB, Deepwater Horizon Response and FL Situation Report) 

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico 
Tropical Storm Alex as discussed above.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Celia

On Jun 28, at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located approximately 1,070 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.  Celia is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph and this system is expected to remain nearly stationary during the next two days.   Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  Celia is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday. This storm is not a threat to any U.S. interests.
Tropical Storm Darby
On Jun 28, at 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Darby was located approximately 240 miles south southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Darby is moving east-northeast at 6 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and it is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday. This storm is not a threat to any U.S. interests.
Central and Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday evening.   
(NOAA, JTWC) 

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level 2
National Fire Activity as of Sunday, June 27, 2010:
 
There were 116 new fires, 3 new large fires, 0 large fires contained, 0 uncontained large fires and 6 states affected:  AZ, NM, CO, AK, TX & NJ
Shultz Fire
The Shultz Fire, near Flagstaff, AZ (Coconino County) has an approved FMAG from Jun 20. All evacuation orders have been lifted and no injuries or fatalities were reported. At this point, 15,075 acres have burned with 65% containment. 
(NIFC) 

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

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